Publications

Ecological interactions shape community dynamics and stability, yet many go unrecorded. Link prediction methods attempt to tackle incomplete knowledge, but predictions are only conjectures, and validating them all in the field is neither feasible nor desirable. Furthermore, interactions differ in the action needed for their detection. Validation therefore must be guided by ecological and statistical theory. We present a guided-sampling framework that combines predictions with local and regional observations, using within-system variability across replicated networks as contextual evidence. It assigns each link to a fine-resolution, ecologically-aware taxonomy that separates conflated categories (e.g., forbidden versus undersampled interactions). Each category then implies a concrete action (e.g., sample more, change method). A Bayesian formulation quantifies confidence in each assignment and incorporates researchers' knowledge. We include a worked empirical example, and an interactive Bayesian version online (http://lpguide.ecomplab.com). Contextual evidence turns link prediction from a source of untested hypotheses into a plan for fieldwork.

Anthropogenic activity has altered Earth’s climate at a rate unprecedented in millennia. Whether this rate itself has increased in recent decades remains uncertain, partly because natural variability obscures acceleration signals over short timescales. Here, we show that commonly used detection methods can yield different acceleration estimates, helping to explain divergent conclusions in the literature. We then examine whether acceleration emerges more clearly at regional than at global scales using observational, reanalysis, and simulation datasets. We find that large areas of the planet show significant acceleration of surface temperature. Densely populated regions, biodiversity hotspots, and Key Biodiversity Areas are particularly affected, with roughly half of the world’s population already living in areas undergoing accelerating warming. We show that this regional signal is correlated with the emergence of a global acceleration signal, indicating that a detectable global signal is expected around the present decade. We further demonstrate that regional aerosol forcing modulates the timing of acceleration emergence, delaying detection in heavily polluted regions while hastening it where aerosol emissions have declined. Finally, we assess when a deceleration signal is expected to emerge under different emissions pathways over the twenty-first century. Under a stringent mitigation pathway (SSP1-2.6), a deceleration signal in global warming is projected to emerge near mid-century, whereas under a moderate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5) it is delayed by about three decades, emerging around 2080. These results indicate that the climate system is not only warming, but doing so at an increasing rate in many inhabited regions, underscoring the urgency of rapid mitigation and adaptation.

Climate change manifests not only as changes in daily mean temperatures but also as shifts in the daily pattern of temperatures. We analyze historical analogues in the daily temperature cycle by comparing equivalent hourly temperatures since the 1980s. On a global average, temperatures characteristic of the morning warming period occur roughly 15 minutes earlier per decade, while those in the afternoon cooling period occur more than 20 minutes later per decade. For example, temperatures that occurred at 10 AM in the 1980s now occur at 9 AM, with even greater shifts in the afternoon. If sustained, the time of day at which equivalent temperatures occur would be displaced by more than three hours by 2100 relative to the 1980s, persisting under the ‘middle of the road’ pathway but slowing and eventually stopping under mitigation. The timing changes perturb ecological cues, increase human heat exposure, and displace energy demand in ways not captured by means or extremes, underscoring the value of time-of-day metrics for characterizing climate change impacts. Moreover, in more than half of mid-latitude regions, mean daily minima are projected to exceed the 1980s maxima, creating novel diurnal regimes with no recent historical analogues.